What worries you about the new world of artificial intelligence?
It is very often that the answer to this question resembles the plot of a science fiction thriller. People are concerned that the development of artificial intelligence produces "singularity": that point in history in which artificial intelligence will surpass human, which will provoke an unimaginable revolution in the life of man. People also wonder if, instead of controlling artificial intelligence, it will control us and make us, in effect, in cyborgs.
There are interesting topics to consider, but they are not pressing. They refer to situations that might not come until hundreds of years if any. At the moment, there is no known path among our best artificial intelligence tools (like the Google computer program that recently beat the world's best player in Go) and "general" artificial intelligence. Self-Aware software which can have to reason with common sense, acquire knowledge in many fields, feel, express and understand emotions, and so on.
They do not mean that we do not have to worry about anything. On the contrary, the artificial intelligence products that exist today are improving faster than most people are aware of and promise to transform our world, not always for the better radically. They are only tools, not a form of competing for intelligence. However, they will give a new shape to the meaning of work and how wealth is generated, and this will produce unprecedented economic inequalities and even alter the global balance of power.
It is necessary that we pay attention to these immediate challenges.
What is artificial intelligence right now? Roughly, it is a technology that has an enormous amount of information about a particular field (e.g., loan repayment histories) and uses it to decide a specific case (whether or not to grant a loan to an individual), to Service a specific objective (maximizing the lender's profits). Think of an extremely fast spreadsheet that used to handling a large amount of data. These tools can outperform humans in any given task.
This type of artificial intelligence is being incorporated into thousands of fields (not just loans), and as you do so, you will eliminate many jobs. Gradually, this software will replace bank tellers, customer service representatives, telemarketers, bond and stock traders, legal assistants, and radiologists. The grace period, this technology will come to control semi-autonomous and autonomous machinery, as in vehicles that drive alone and robots, and the consequence will be the displacement of workers in factories and construction, drivers, home delivery And many other jobs.
Turning this transformation will result in huge gains for companies developing the technology, as well as for those who take it. Imagine how much amount a company like Uber could earn if it used only robotized drivers. Imagine Apple's revenue if it could manufacture its products without human labor. Imagine the profits of a lending company that could make loans for $ 30 million a year with virtually no human being involved (in fact, my venture capital firm has invested in a lender as I refer to).
So we are facing two situations that do not coexist together easily: enormous wealth concentrated in relatively few hands and huge numbers of unemployed people. What should be done?
Part of the answer will involve educating and re-training people on tasks where they do not highlight tools with artificial intelligence. This technology is not well suited to jobs requiring creativity, planning, and interdisciplinary thinking - for example, the work of a litigating lawyer. However, the most common are that these skills are necessary for well-paid jobs, and it would be difficult to re-train displaced workers in these jobs. The idea of low-wage jobs involving "people skills," which lack artificial intelligence, is more promising: social workers, bartenders, janitors, and professions that require nuanced human interaction. However, in this type of work there is also a problem: how many bartenders does society need?
I suspect that the solution to this issue of mass unemployment will involve "works of service of love." Artificial intelligence cannot perform these jobs that society needs and give meaning to people's lives. Some examples would be the accompaniment of older adults to their visits with doctors, orphanage orientation and to be a godfather in Alcoholics Anonymous, or in a short time there could be an Addicts Anonymous to Virtual Reality (for those who have an addiction to their parallel lives in computer-generated simulations). In other words, today's volunteer service jobs could be actual works of the future.
Other volunteer jobs may have better salaries and professionalization’s, such as compassionate medical service providers, the "human interface" of artificial intelligence programs that diagnose cancer. In all cases, people will be able to choose to work fewer hours than they now work.
Who will pay for these jobs? This is where enormous wealth comes in concentrated in relatively few hands. It seems to me that it will inevitably be that large portions of the money that artificial intelligence will create will be transferred to the people who lost their jobs. That may be viable only through Keynesian policies in which government spending increases, which would presumably be achieved by increasing taxes on wealthy companies.
Regarding the form of social assistance, I would propose a fundamental and universal conditioned income. This will be given to people who have financial difficulties, on the condition that they demonstrate that they make an effort to receive training that makes them contractible or that commit themselves to a certain number of hours of voluntary "service of love."
To finance that proposal, the tax rates will have to be higher. The administration will not only have to subsidize the lives and work of most people, but it will also have to make up for lost revenue from the taxes it used to collect from employees.
This brings us to the ultimate challenge and perhaps the most critical of artificial intelligence. The Keynesian approach I have described may be feasible in the United States and China because they will have enough artificial intelligence businesses to fund social assistance initiatives through taxes. But the rest of the countries?
The other nations face two insurmountable problems. First, most of the money produced by artificial intelligence will go to the United States and China. Artificial intelligence is an industry in which force breeds strength: the more data you have, the better your product will be; the better your product, you can collect more data. The more data you can collect, the more talent you can attract; the more talent you can attract, the better your product will be. It is a virtuous circle, and the United States and China already have talent, market share and data ready to go.
For example, Chinese voice recognition company Cytec and several Chinese facial recognition companies such as Megvii and Sense Time have become industry leaders, according to stock market capitalization measurements. The United States leads the development of autonomous vehicles, which a driven by companies such as Google, Tesla, and Uber. As for the consumer Internet market, there are seven US and Chinese companies - Google, Facebook, Microsoft, Amazon, Baidu, Alibaba, and Ten cent - that are using artificial intelligence comprehensively and are expanding their operations to other countries, with Which are taking over those markets. It seems that US businesses will dominate developed markets and some of the developing markets,
The other challenge facing many countries other than China and the United States is that their populations are increasing, especially in developing countries. Although having a significant and growing population may be a financial asset in the age of artificial intelligence it will be a burden because it will consist mainly of displaced workers, not workers Productive.
So, if most countries cannot have artificial intelligence companies that can generate massive amounts of tax revenue to subsidize their employees, what options will they have? I can only predict one: unless they want to plunge their people into poverty, they will be forced to negotiate with the country that provides them with the largest amount of artificial intelligence software. China or the United States - to be essentially an economic dependent of And accept social assistance subsidies in exchange for artificial intelligence companies in the "mother" nation continue to earn profits from users in the dependent country. These economic arrangements would transform today's geopolitical alliances.
Either way, we will have to start thinking about how to minimize the imminent gap that artificial intelligence will open between those who have it and those who do not, both within nations and between nations. Artificial intelligence presents us with an opportunity to rethink economic inequality on a global scale. The effects of these challenges have such scope for any country that it is impossible to separate itself from the rest of the world.